A compartmental model for COVID-19 to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions with emphasis on contact-based quarantine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24193/subbmath.2023.3.15Keywords:
COVID-19, compartmental model, quarantine, data fitting.Abstract
Relative to the number of casualties, COVID-19 ranks among the ten most devastating plagues in history. The pandemic hit the South Asian nation of Bangladesh in early March 2020 and has greatly impacted the socio-economic status of the country. In this article, we propose a compartmental model for COVID-19 dynamics, introducing a separate class for quarantined susceptibles, synonymous to isolation of individuals who have been exposed and are suspected of being infected. The current model assumes a perfect quarantine based on contact with infectious individuals. Numerical simulation is conducted to investigate the efficiency of disease control by segregating suspected individuals and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. In addition, we assort quantitatively the importance of parameters that influence the dynamics of the system. Fitting the system to the early phase of COVID-19 outbreaks in Bangladesh, by taking into account the cumulative number of cases with the data of the first 17-week period, the basic reproduction number is estimated as 1.69.
Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 92D30, 34A99.
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