Distribution and Statistical Analysis of Refereeing Decisions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24193/subbeag.70(4).28Keywords:
football, VAR, referee decisions, match analysisAbstract
Introduction: Refereeing decisions, often influenced by biases like home advantage, play a crucial role in football outcomes. The introduction of Video Assistant Referee (VAR) in 2018 has sought to reduce subjective errors and improve fairness, leading to increased decision accuracy and potentially encouraging more confident attacking play inside the penalty area. Objective: The aim of this research was to explore the impact of the introduction of the VAR technology on the ratio of penalties, ball touches inside the penalty area, and attacking entry methods in the OTP Bank League. Methods: Data from the 2018/19 to the 2023/24 seasons were obtained from the Wyscout database. Statistical analyses employed Welch’s t-test and Pearson’s correlation. Results: The results showed a significant drop in penalty rates after VAR was introduced (p = 0.0496), with more ball touches inside the penalty area. Unexpectedly, the link between dribbling and penalties weakened, becoming negative post-VAR. Meanwhile, pass-based entries showed a strong positive correlation with penalties (r = 0.94621). Although overall entries rose, changes in specific entry types weren’t statistically significant. Conclusion: The study found that the introduction of VAR in Hungarian top league reduced penalties, increased touches in the penalty area, and shifted attacking strategies by emphasizing pass-based entries over dribbling, highlighting VAR’s impact on both refereeing and team tactics.
Article history: Received 2025 October 02; Revised 2025 November 07; Accepted 2025 November 20;
Available online 2026 January 30; Available print 2026 January 30
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